A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
